Does Governing Trump Campaigning? The Future of Health Reform in Massachusetts
The election of Donald Trump, running on a platform of complete repeal of the Affordable Care Act, puts at risk the coverage of some 22 million people who rely on the law for their health insurance. Patients who depend on the law for their coverage are fearing the worst. So, on the day after the election, more than 100,000 Americans rushed to sign up for coverage, the largest number ever during this year’s open enrollment.
But what about us, in Massachusetts? Our 2006 “RomneyCare” reforms predate the ACA. Our own reform law resulted in the reduction in our uninsured rate from around 11% in 2006 to about 6% in 2010. Implementation of the ACA further expanded coverage, and today our uninsurance rate is about 3%. And our law has broad political support, including Republican Governor Baker. So now Fortune Magazine is recommending that people upset about Trump's election move to Massachusetts, rather than Canada.
The short answer is that we can’t yet know the impact of policy changes to be enacted by Trump and the Republican Congress. Already, there are some signs of retreat, as Trump indicates support for keeping pre-existing conditions protections. The Washington Post reported that, “In the long run, waffling on repeal will probably be less painful than causing a health-care catastrophe” (see this smart analysis on The Conversation for background). For example, the President-elect’s new official government website health care page has different policies than the campaign’s.
But our pre-ACA state reforms did not exist in vacuum. They depended on federal fiscal and policy support for their operation, provided through the MassHealth Medicaid waiver. Implementation of the ACA in Massachusetts allowed for substantial improvements in coverage, and state financial savings. Vicky Pulos, an attorney at the Massachusetts Law Reform Institute, provides some perspective and a warning about what could happen:
In MA over 300,000 adults are enrolled in MassHealth and an additional 180,000 in Connector Care under provisions of the ACA.
If the Medicaid expansion and federal tax credits and subsidies in the ACA are repealed, it won't happen overnight. We still have the bones of our 2006 state health reform law on the books, but prior to the ACA we insured far fewer people at a far greater net state cost. Retaining coverage will require all hands on deck.
Meanwhile last Friday, MassHealth received approval from CMS (the federal Medicaid agency) for amendment and extension of its 1115 demonstration (the waiver) to 2022. Approval allows MassHealth to move ahead with plans for Accountable Care Organizations that will change the way providers are organized and paid. The goals are to reduce state spending and provide more coordinated care. Approval also secures billions in additional federal funds over 5 years.
It's far too early to speculate how a new federal administration may affect the waiver. However, approval does not insulate MassHealth from future changes in federal law or policy or a new administration taking a different view of whether the waiver serves the public interest.
HCFA and our Affordable Care Today (ACT!!) Coalition will launch a broad, aggressive campaign to oppose any reduction in affordable coverage in Massachusetts. We urge you to join us, now. Sign up using this form to stay informed about Massachusetts health reform, and how you can add your voice in support of keeping good health care affordable in Massachusetts.
-- Brian Rosman